Which proverb comes to mind when you think of group thinking “two heads are better than one” or “too many cooks spoil the broth”?
As usual the reality is neither simple nor universally applicable. To help get a better handle on this issue I read an article by Norbert L. Kerr and R. Scott Tindale title Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis. And really I must credit the authors with the initial comparison of the two proverbs.
What is Meant By Forecasting?
The first thing of interest in the article is the identification of what is meant by forecasting. Group forecasting is almost like a type of group problem solving. People come together with thoughts that lead to a group forecast. While this may simply sound like group problem solving it is quite different. Problem solving suggests that a definitive conclusion or solution can be found. The puzzle can be unlocked with a team effort.
Group forecasting is different from problem solving because it strives for a prediction of something that cannot be known until the event unfolds. The article offers up the example of a group of meteorologists coming together to determine what the weather will be like tomorrow. They will use all kinds of data to make their forecast but the variables are too great for them to say with 100% certainty what tomorrow will bring. We will not know if they are accurate until the result happens in real time. The beauty of this is the idea that the forecast, in its generation can never be conclusively proven. This idea of group think is what is going on when people seek the group sentiment of stock action on tweet trader.
This idea of group forecasting in the paper is also held apart from situations where an answer cannot be known, like in the case of matters of personal taste or in certain circumstances where no one may ever know what the truth is. “Most tasks, including all forecasting tasks, fall somewhere in between the extremes of pure intellectual and pure judgmental tasks.” (16)
The Take Away
I have to admit this paper got very technical very quickly. Reference to SDST or social decision scheme theory and other theories of decision making got too technical for me to understand but overall I think the article was helpful and contributed to my understanding of the components of group think. In the end, the authors conclude that different techniques of aggregating used in forecasting fit different situations in unique ways making some better options in certain circumstances than others. Towards the end they mentioned the use of social media sites as a way of providing anonymity to the group think process thus making the outcomes potentially more accurate then with current models.
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